Tag: Kruger Fire

Former Naval aviator’s thoughts about the fatal air tanker crash on the Kruger Fire

Author Guest WriterPosted on Categories Fixed wingTags , , , 14 Comments on Former Naval aviator’s thoughts about the fatal air tanker crash on the Kruger Fire
Kruger Fire 3-D map
Kruger Fire (in red) 3-D map, approximate location. Looking north.

(Note from Bill: Bean Barrett, a frequent contributor to Fire Aviation, spent a career in U.S. Naval  Aviation as a fighter pilot and served on the Navy Staff as a program sponsor responsible for planning, programming, and budgeting. He was also a Naval Aviation Safety Officer trained in mishap investigation.  Here are some of his thoughts about the fatal crash of the AT-802 single engine air tanker on the Kruger Fire July 25, 2021.)

A blinding flash of the obvious to an old Naval aviator.

Having been in the business of personally flying and ordering flights in marginal conditions over my flying career, I offer the following observation derived from thinking about the mishap involving the SEAT at the Kruger Fire: This mission represented a near first for fire aviation in a very difficult  environment. There is little community experience to bolster command and operational decisions by IC’s and pilots operating in this environment.

From personal experience, flying in extraordinarily bad conditions at night at sea is only possible to undertake and successfully accomplish because there are thousands of hours and sorties worth of community experience that helps those responsible know when and where to draw the line.

In this case, regardless of the NTSB/FAA mishap findings, without a significant background of fire aviation community experience to draw on for a particular situation or environment, it is always best to operate conservatively and approach any new environment in steps, never do the hardest one first if at all possible.

I would hope that the mishap SEAT flight was the culmination of a “work up” from simple to complex tasking and flying over hundreds of hours of use of night vision goggles and night drops with the aircraft.

This underscores the requirement for the fire aviation community to develop/ expand standard training and operations procedures both for general ops and by specific aircraft type and mission. If everyone trains and operates to the same standards, community experience is more relevant, experience can be accumulated and shared, procedures modified and improved, and training requirements adjusted resulting in improved flight safety and operations.

—

How many folks in the IMT/ IC business are aware of the AT-802 flight safety record when they order a SEAT?

https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/type/AT8T/1

Over four mishaps a year since May, 1997. This should have set off alarm bells a very long time ago except there isn’t any agency “keeping score” for type aircraft mishap rate and mishap cause that then ties the information and “lessons learned” back to mandated changes in training, maintenance, and ops procedures. It is very apparent from looking over the reference that the mishap rate is unacceptable and it isn’t getting any better.

Absent mandated standardized training, maintenance, and operations procedures for the AT-802 (and all other fire aviation aircraft), unacceptable mishap rates will continue. Since the US government is the largest contracting organization, it would seem logical to mandate a comprehensive Federal standardization program for AT-802 SEAT’s and other fire aviation aircraft that will operate under government contract.

To expect a loose confederacy of contract aviation companies to cooperatively develop a program is wishful thinking.

Some may say that such a Federal program already exists but my reply would be “where is the dash 1 or NATOPS flight manual for each type of aircraft, how is it revised, and what single agency is responsible for the manuals, standardized training, standardized operations, and standardized maintenance?” It is obvious that today’s chop suey of regulatory agencies, regulations, requirements, and instructions is not working for fire aviation.

There will be complaints about the additional cost to institute a consolidated comprehensive standardization program that will save fire aviation lives, aircraft, and improve effectiveness but my answer would be … the option of continuing with business as usual is obviously unacceptable.

Until fire aviation has a comprehensive aviation program as good as the US military aviation programs, we can expect little change in the fire fviation mishap rates or in operational effectiveness.

Winds were strong when the air tanker crashed at the Kruger Fire

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Fixed wingTags , , , , , , 15 Comments on Winds were strong when the air tanker crashed at the Kruger Fire

The Larimer County Sheriff’s office ordered the aircraft, using a “verbal contract” agreed to a month before.

1:30 p.m. MST Nov. 18, 2021

Weather data from Estes Park RAWS, ESPC2
Weather data from Estes Park RAWS, ESPC2. The last observation shown is at 2224 MST Nov. 16, 2021. The observations at the arrows were 12 minutes before the last detected location of the aircraft.

Around the time Single Engine Air Tanker 860 crashed at the Kruger Rock Fire in Colorado at approximately 6:36 p.m. MST on November 16, killing pilot Marc Thor Olson, the Estes Park ESPC2 Remote Automatic Weather Station recorded sustained winds of 13 mph gusting to 32 mph out of the west. The station is 3.7 miles northwest of the fire at 7,892 feet and its anemometer is 20 feet above the ground.

N802NZ, last 10 minutes of flight tracking data
N802NZ, last 10 minutes of flight tracking data, Nov. 16, 2021. Note that the times are CST. FlightAware.

Looking at the flight tracking log from FlightAware above, the wind appeared to be much stronger at the plane’s altitude, which was 8,950 to 10,450 feet while it was over the fire. The highest peak just south of the fire is at 9,400 feet.

Map of the Krueger Rock Fire
Map of the Krueger Rock Fire, Nov. 17, 2021. Colorado’s Multi-Mission aircraft and crew.

As it made four orbits near the fire during the 10 minutes it was in the area, the ground speed of T-860, an Air Tractor 802A (N802NZ) varied from a low of 82 mph while flying west to a maximum of 200 mph when east-bound. These shifts in ground speed were consistent during all four orbits. This indicates a very strong wind out of the west, a direction that is consistent with the data from the weather station.

The last flight of Tanker 860 N802NZ
The last flight of Tanker 860, N802NZ. The flight originated at Northern Colorado Regional Airport. Note that the times are in CST. FlightAware.

There are two reasons that fixed wing air tankers avoid attacking wildfires during strong winds. One, the wind makes it difficult or impossible for the retardant to hit the target, getting blown horizontally as it falls from the aircraft to the ground. Second, flying low and slow, as air tankers have to do, is difficult in mountainous terrain with calm winds, but it can be extremely hazardous during strong winds.

When you add a third complexity of dropping at night using night vision goggles, something that has been done very little in the history of fixed wing aviation, and never before in Colorado, the pilot had the deck stacked against him. With the strong wind, the chances of stopping or slowing the spread of the fire with retardant, water, or any other suppressant, were very, very slim. (There is a report that the operator of the aircraft, CO Fire Aviation, experimented with night drops in Oregon in 2021.)

The weather forecast available from the National Weather Service that Tuesday afternoon called for continued very strong winds until sundown and a chance for snow Tuesday night. It predicted dry weather on Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures in the 30s and 40s under mostly sunny skies with the relative humidity around 20 percent. The wind chill was expected to be below zero from Wednesday afternoon until Thursday afternoon. The actual low temperature Tuesday night turned out to be 11 degrees.

Risk vs. reward

With 20/20 hindsight looking at risk vs. reward, this was a very high risk mission. The potential reward was little, considering the likely effectiveness of 700 gallons of suppressant blown off target by strong winds and the weather forecast of a chance of snow in a matter of hours and wind chills the next day below zero.

Who decided to attempt the night flight?

The short answer is, the Larimer County Sheriff’s office ordered the aircraft to respond to the fire, using a “verbal call when needed contract”, an arrangement that was first agreed to on October 5, 2021.

A preliminary map appears to show that the fire was just inside the boundary of the Roosevelt National Forest. The Larimer County Sheriff’s office said on Wednesday Nov. 17 that as of 7 a.m. that day the fire was being managed by a unified command with the US Forest Service and the Sheriff.

In Colorado, Texas, and Wyoming the local county sheriffs are given the responsibility for suppressing wildfires outside of cities unless they are on federal land. The Kruger Rock Fire was in Larimer County.

As Wildfire Today reported November 16, before the fatal flight, T-860 departed from the Fort Morgan, Colorado airport, orbited the fire about half a dozen times, then landed at Northern Colorado Regional Airport at 4:38 p.m. MST. This flight is listed in the image from FlightAware above as one of two flights that day for the aircraft. It turns out that on the first flight it dropped water on the fire, which the pilot reportedly described as “successful”. After it landed at Northern Colorado Regional Airport it reloaded with “fire suppressant” instead of water, and by 6:13 p.m. MST was airborne returning to the fire.

Sunset that day was at 4:44 p.m. MST. The air tanker disappeared from tracking at 6:35 p.m., about 1 hour and 49 minutes after sunset. Air tankers working for the U.S. federal government are allowed to drop only as late as 30 minutes after official sunset.

The Denver Post reported that CO Fire Aviation said in a statement, “There was no aerial supervision or lead plane required for the mission and weather and wind conditions were reported to be within limits of our company standard operating procedures.”

In the video below Juan Browne has strong feelings about this incident. Shortly after posting it, he wrote a comment saying, “GROUNDSPEED NOT AIRSPEED!”

Below is an excerpt from a statement released November 17, 2021 by the Larimer County Sheriff’s office:

Continue reading “Winds were strong when the air tanker crashed at the Kruger Fire”

Air tanker crashes Tuesday night at Kruger Rock Fire

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Fixed wingTags , , , , , , , 14 Comments on Air tanker crashes Tuesday night at Kruger Rock Fire

The Single Engine Air Tanker was equipped for night-flying

Updated at 4:54 p.m. MST Nov. 17, 2021

Wednesday afternoon CO Fire Aviation released a statement that identified the pilot who was killed Nov. 16 during a night-flying air tanker mission on the Kruger Rock Fire southeast of Estes Park, Colorado.

The CO Fire Aviation family is deeply saddened by the sudden, tragic loss of one of our brothers serving as a tanker pilot. Marc Thor Olson was a highly decorated veteran of both the Army and Air Force with 32 years of service to our country. During Thor’s 42 years of flight, he had amassed more than 8,000 total flight hours with an impressive 1,000 hours of NVG flight including in combat and civilian flight.

Co Fire maintains a close working relationship with multi regulatory agencies and is fully cooperating with the proper authorities and partners during this investigation.

While we are gravely aware of the inherent dangers of aerial fire fighting and the questions that remain; we ask that family and friends be given distance and time to process and heal as we grieve this loss. Your prayers are appreciated during this difficult time.

A preliminary map appears to show that the fire was just inside the boundary of the Roosevelt National Forest. The Larimer County Sheriff’s office said on Wednesday that as of 7 a.m. Wednesday the fire was managed by a unified command with the US Forest Service and the Sheriff. In Colorado the local county sheriffs are given the responsibility for suppressing wildfires outside of cities unless they are on federal land.

Map, Kruger Rock Fire
The map shows the approximate location of the Kruger Rock Fire. It is based heat detected by satellites as late as 1:40 p.m. MST Nov. 16, 2021. Clouds degraded the ability of satellites to obtain good quality data.

The crash occurred at about 6:35 p.m MST on Tuesday Nov. 16 while attempting to suppress the fire. This was about 1 hour and 49 minutes after sunset, and was the first time a fixed wing air tanker had dropped fire suppressant on a fire at night in Colorado.

The last flight of Tanker 860
This is the last part of the last flight of Tanker 860. The flight originated at Northern Colorado Regional Airport. FlightAware.

11:17 p.m. MST Nov. 16, 2021

AT-802F single engine air tanker
File photo of the aircraft that crashed November 16, 2021. Air Tractor AT-802A, N802NZ, owned by CO Fire Aviation. Photo by Aviation Specialties Unlimited September, 2018.

An air tanker that was working the Kruger Rock Fire southeast of Estes Park, Colorado Tuesday night November 16 crashed, killing the pilot, the only person on board. The Single Engine Air Tanker (SEAT) had taken off from Northern Colorado Regional Airport, formerly known as the Fort Collins-Loveland Municipal Airport, at 6:13 p.m. MST Nov. 16 and disappeared from flight tracking 22 minutes later at 6:35 p.m. MST. Earlier in the day it departed from the Fort Morgan, Colorado airport, orbited the fire about half a dozen times, then landed at Northern Colorado Regional Airport at 4:38 p.m. MST.

The incident was first reported by KUSA, 9News in Denver. Marc Sallinger, reporter for the station, had interviewed the pilot earlier in the day, and wrote on Twitter, “My thoughts and prayers are with the pilot who took off tonight, so excited for this history-making flight. He told me ‘this is the culmination of 5 years of hard work.’ He showed me his night vision goggles and how they worked. He was so kind. Holding out hope for him.”

Eyewitnesses reported the crash at approximately 6:37 p.m., but in the dark it was very difficult to pinpoint the location. After three hours of searching, firefighters found it near the south end of Hermit Park. Unfortunately the pilot was deceased.

The aircraft was an Air Tractor 802A, registration number N802NZ, owned by CO Fire Aviation. In 2018 we wrote about the company’s efforts to configure this aircraft for fighting fires at night. Helicopters have been doing it off and on for decades, but a fixed wing air tanker dropping retardant on a fire at night is extremely rare. In 2020 and 2021 CO Fire Aviation had one of their SEATs working on a night-flying contract in Oregon. The company says they are the only operators of night-flying fixed wing air tankers.

Earlier this year a video was posted on YouTube that featured CO Fire Aviation conducting a night-flying demonstration at Loveland, Colorado. That segment begins at 8:15 in the video.

At 6 p.m. the Larimer County Sheriff’s office said the Kruger Rock Fire had burned about 133 acres. More information about the fire is on Wildfire Today.

Our sincere condolences go out to the pilot’s family, friends, and coworkers.

The article was edited to show that the crash was first reported by KUSA, 9News in Denver.

Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Tom.